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00400	 00002 00002	 ON THE SPACE PROGRAM
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00100	COMMENTS ON THE SPACE PROGRAM
00200	
00300	
00400		The   manned  space  program  should  be  continued  for  the
00500	following reasons:
00600	
00700		1. Its value for science.  This is a minor  reason  and  only
00800	justifies  (say)  $100,000,000 per year of its cost.  This is because
00900	manned space travel is very expensive, and more science per buck  can
01000	be  obtained  in other ways.  Nevertheless, that fraction of the cost
01100	of the space program that contributes to science should  be  able  to
01200	charge  to  science its scientific value.  This estimate might change
01300	if something very interesting turned up.  In fact, the probability of
01400	this is worth (say) an additional $50,000,000 per year.
01500	
01600		2. Technological progress applicable to other fields.  15% of
01700	the cost of the program.  The reasoning is similar to the above.
01800	
01900		3. Direct applications.  The smaller of $150,000,000 per year
02000	and 50% of the cost.
02100	
02200		4.     Satisfying  mankind's  collective  curiousity.    This
02300	collective curiousity provides part of the justification for science,
02400	but  science is not its only component.  In my opinion, this is worth
02500	about $3,000,000,000 per year.
02600	
02700		5. To provide freedom to emigrate from the earth  for  groups
02800	that  don't like any of the existing governments.  As the world fills
02900	up, the restrictions on individuals grow.  This freedom will  benefit
03000	not  only  those who actually exercise it but will reduce feelings of
03100	claustrophobia by others who consider themselves potential emigrants.
03200	This is worth $2,000,000,000 per year.
03300	
03400		Adding up these numbers, we get about $6,000,000,000 per year
03500	for the manned component of the space program which would pay  for  a
03600	program  considerably  more  ambitious  than  Apollo.  What kind of a
03700	program should this be?
03800	
03900		1. Technologically,  the  first  thing  is  to  complete  the
04000	Shuttle  and  provide it with a re-usable booster so as to reduce the
04100	cost per pound to orbit as much as possible.
04200	
04300		2. A low thrust rocket capable of making  arbitrary  journeys
04400	within  the  solar system in a matter of months.  Probably this would
04500	be a nuclear electric rocket.
04600	
04700		3. A permanent space station.
04800	
04900		4. Facilities at the space station  for  assembling  vehicles
05000	and payloads.
05100	
05200		2. Missions.
05300	
05400			2.1.  Exploration  of  the  moon  and  planets.  This
05500	should be done much more boldly than previously.  It  should  consist
05600	mainly  of  one  way  missions with the explorers committed to remain
05700	until retirement or even for  the  rest  of  their  lives  and  earth
05800	committed to supply them. Thus, if Apollo had been conducted as a one
05900	way with resupply program, we estimate that four explorers could have
06000	made  a  permanent  base  on  the moon and been provided with 200,000
06100	pounds of supplies.  This would include 75,000  pounds  of  food  and
06200	oxygen  to  last  them for five years and 125,000 pounds of equipment
06300	including a shelter, material for  extending  it,  tools,  excavating
06400	equipment, a couple of vehicles, and a nuclear or solar power source.
06500	The scientific return would have been  much  greater,  and  a  ground
06600	survey of a substantial part of the moon would be possible.
06700	
06800		Of  course,  such  a  mission  would  have substantial risks.
06900	There might be an irrepairable failure  of  some  part  of  the  life
07000	support  system. One or more men might lose there lives in landslides
07100	or from falls or other accidents of the kind that explorers suffer on
07200	earth.   There  might  have been some uncompensable effect of the low
07300	gravity.  Nevertheless, the risks might well be less than that of the
07400	Apollo  program  as  operated  since  the  return parts of the Apollo
07500	missions also have important risks. In  any  case,  the  risks  would
07600	almost  certainly  be less than those that explorers have suffered in
07700	the past.
07800	
07900		Qualified candidates would certainly  have  been  found,  but
08000	they would have to be a different kind of person than the test pilots
08100	of Apollo who are prepared to take great risks but expect to be  able
08200	to  return  to  their  families  after  short  periods.  The explorer
08300	mentality also exists in adequate numbers.
08400	
08500		One way missions of this type should be planned for the moon,
08600	Mars,  probably  one  of  the moons of Mars, a large asteroid, a moon
08700	each of Jupiter and  Saturn,  and  Pluto.   If  the  temperature  and
08800	pressure  problems  can  be  solved,  then Mercury and Venus are also
08900	candidates. Actually, it will be  relatively  easy  to  retrieve  the
09000	crews  from  the  moons  of Mars, the asteroids, and Mercury, because
09100	they will not be deep in a gravitational field.
09200	
09300		2. The problem of permanent living  in  interplanetary  space
09400	needs  to  be  solved  so that emigration will be possible.  Once the
09500	shuttle and low thrust rockets have been developed, the  problem  may
09600	be  solved  by emigrants rather than by earth governments.  I see the
09700	problem as follows:
09800	
09900		The best place to live in the solar system off the  earth  is
10000	interplanetary   space.    The  other  planets  are  all  worse  than
10100	Antarctica. The advantage of interplanetary space is that solar power
10200	is  easily collected since the collectors can be permanently oriented
10300	to the sun and will never be occluded.  A second  advantage  is  that
10400	the  lack  of gravity makes the construction of structures easy.  The
10500	disadvantage is that matter has to be obtained elsewhere.   The  best
10600	sources  of  matter  are  the  asteroids  since  if we imagine a good
10700	low-thrust high specific  impulse  technology,  they  can  be  easily
10800	visited  without  the need to enter a deep gravitational well.  It is
10900	not clear that all the elements  necessary  for  human  life  can  be
11000	obtained  from  them.  Some may have to be obtained from the moons of
11100	Jupiter or even from Earth.  Perhaps structural  materials  will  be
11200	obtainable in Space and biological materials will have to be obtained
11300	from Earth.  Only material for expansion will be required since there
11400	must be a technology for complete recycling of biological wastes into
11500	food, drinking water and breathable air.  I imagine  that  groups  as
11600	small as twenty will be viable, but hundreds will be more normal.
11700